Os assaltantes deram o golpe de Estado em Portugal, e a cada dia que passa, aumentam e são cada vez maiores os riscos de bancarrota de Portugal, Itália, Espanha, Grécia, Irlanda...
Pra nós não é novidade nenhuma, estamos cansados de alertar que os banqueiros controlam os políticos, que os bancos são os culpados da crise (Deutsche bank admite manipulação de mercado, Taxas Euribor e Libor, que está em curso, uma verdadeira Operação Militar Contra Portugal, que o Fundo Monetário Internacional, pratica Crimes Contra a Humanidade, que a crise económica e financeira, é deliberadamente provocada pelo Cartel da Banca Internacional, Grupo de Bancos Inter Alpha e Round Table, em estreita colaboração com a máfia das Agências de Rating (ver estrutura da Moody's), conjugados com o FMI e a União NAZI Europeia, com vista ao roubo programado.
Estudo Euler Hermes (http://www.eulerhermes.com/) prevê que, nos países mediterrâneos, as insolvências deverão registar um recorde, ao aumentarem 20%, atingindo em Portugal um aumento de 50% de Falências. Importa salientar, de acordo com notícia do diário de nóticias, a União NAZI Europeia, prepara mais um novo imposto sobre o gasóleo, imposto, a implementar no próximo ano, e que automaticamente aumentará os custos de produção e as falências, tornando gigantesco o enorme Tsunami Social que já estamos a viver, e que se transformará num Tsunami Económico e Financeiro devastador de proporções globais.
Slow-down in world growth pushes up number of business insolvencies
13.08.2012
World economic growth will not exceed 2.5% in 2012 but is expected to improve moderately to 2.9% in 2013.
After contracting by 0.4% in 2012, the euro-zone economy should recover from recession in 2013 (+0.8%).
Euler Hermes forecasts global business insolvencies to increase by 4% in 2012.
Hit by an economic downturn in Europe, especially in its peripheral countries, world growth will continue to slow slightly in 2012 to 2.5% (after 2.9% in 2011) before rebounding to 2.9% in 2013, according to Euler Hermes’ forecasts.
The outlook for the world’s principal geographical regions is fairly mixed (see chart 1), and slow-growing OECD countries are not expected to contribute more than a third of world growth in 2012 and 2013. “The resilience of world trade, which is forecast to grow by 4.3% in 2012 and by 5.7% in 2013, is one piece of good news. It is becoming a priority for companies to seek out growth wherever it can be found”, says Wilfried Verstraete, Chairman of Euler Hermes.
Euro zone: “Losing time in playing for time”
The euro zone is expected to be in recession in 2012 (-0.4%) owing to weakening activity in southern countries and soft growth in the second quarter across the rest of the region, hurt by the economic downturn in Greece, Spain and Italy. Other European Union countries, particularly the UK, but also most Eastern European countries, are also likely to see their growth decelerate as they pay for the price for weaker export demand. “The major risk is a failure to resolve the euro-zone crisis: financial stress and deteriorating trade balances are costing 0.1 of a point in growth every two months in the euro zone and, by a domino effect, 0.1 of a point in world growth every six months”, says Ludovic Subran, Chief Economist at Euler Hermes.
In 2013, Euler Hermes expects euro-zone growth to stage a timid post-crisis recovery to 0.8%, with a continued recession in the south (Portugal -0.2%, Spain -0.5%, Italy -0.1% and Greece -1%) and a very slow recovery in the north (France +0.9%, Germany +1.7%, Netherlands +0.8% and Belgium +1%).
Slow-down in world growth pushes up number of business insolvencies
Macro-economic and insolvencies outlook by trade credit insurer Euler Hermes
13/08/2012
World economic growth will not exceed 2.5% in 2012 but is expected to improve moderately to 2.9% in 2013.
After contracting by 0.4% in 2012, the euro-zone economy should recover from recession in 2013 (+0.8%).
Euler Hermes forecasts global business insolvencies to increase by 4% in 2012.
Hit by an economic downturn in Europe, especially in its peripheral countries, world growth will continue to slow slightly in 2012 to 2.5% (after 2.9% in 2011) before rebounding to 2.9% in 2013, according to Euler Hermes’ forecasts.
The outlook for the world’s principal geographical regions is fairly mixed (see chart 1), and slow-growing OECD countries are not expected to contribute more than a third of world growth in 2012 and 2013. “The resilience of world trade, which is forecast to grow by 4.3% in 2012 and by 5.7% in 2013, is one piece of good news. It is becoming a priority for companies to seek out growth wherever it can be found”, says Wilfried Verstraete, Chairman of Euler Hermes.
Euro zone: “Losing time in playing for time”
The euro zone is expected to be in recession in 2012 (-0.4%) owing to weakening activity in southern countries and soft growth in the second quarter across the rest of the region, hurt by the economic downturn in Greece, Spain and Italy. Other European Union countries, particularly the UK, but also most Eastern European countries, are also likely to see their growth decelerate as they pay for the price for weaker export demand. “The major risk is a failure to resolve the euro-zone crisis: financial stress and deteriorating trade balances are costing 0.1 of a point in growth every two months in the euro zone and, by a domino effect, 0.1 of a point in world growth every six months”, says Ludovic Subran, Chief Economist at Euler Hermes.
In 2013, Euler Hermes expects euro-zone growth to stage a timid post-crisis recovery to 0.8%, with a continued recession in the south (Portugal -0.2%, Spain -0.5%, Italy -0.1% and Greece -1%) and a very slow recovery in the north (France +0.9%, Germany +1.7%, Netherlands +0.8% and Belgium +1%).
North America: moderate growth
GDP growth in the US and Canada is forecast to reach 2% in 2012 and 2% and 2.3% respectively in 2013. The US economy continues to make a stuttering recovery. Household spending is resilient despite high unemployment and slow income growth. Company investment and earnings are expected to continue weakening.
Are emerging countries really coming to the rescue?
While emerging countries are unquestionably slowing, they are nonetheless proving resilient since they still have macroeconomic policy tools at their disposal. The BRICs, which are major emerging-market contributors, notably have monetary and fiscal room for manoeuvre. The Chinese, Indian and Brazilian central banks have eased their monetary policies in response to the slowdown in global demand. Fiscal taps can generally be opened, especially in China, where a number of measures (support for the automotive and steel industries) were announced in May, and in Russia, which has budgeted on higher public spending (support measures for government employees and a fringe of the private sector, plus an increase in student grants).
Among emerging countries, the BRICs are experiencing a slowdown, excluding Russia, which was buoyed by the high oil price in the first quarter. Annual growth rates are revealing in this respect. Chinese growth slowed to 8.1% year-on-year in the first quarter (from 9.2% previously), Brazilian growth to 0.7% (from 1.4%) and Indian growth to 5.3% (from 6.1%, its weakest growth in the past nine years).
Business insolvencies: the second-round effect of the economic slowdown
In full-year 2012, Euler Hermes’ Global Insolvencies Index, which tracks the change in business insolvencies across the world, is forecast to rebound by 4%. This is a trend shift after a decline in insolvencies in 2010-2011.
While the trend should remain downward in 2012 in the Americas (-9%), despite a sharp increase in Brazil, albeit at a weaker pace than a year earlier (-15%), insolvencies are heading upwards in all other regions. This trend should be limited in Asia (+4% after -6% in 2011). In contrast, another major jump in insolvencies is forecast in Mediterranean countries (+20% after +16% in 2011), which, taken as a whole, are set to post a new record after five consecutive years of increase. The rest of Europe will not be spared (+7% for northern Europe, +4% for France and +1% for Germany, Austria and Switzerland), resulting in a weak performance for the entire euro zone (+14%).
Overall, global insolvencies in 2012 will once again be well above the trough of 2007, though without a repeat of the record level of 2009. For all countries in Euler Hermes’ sample (which represent 86% of world GDP), this would amount to more than 331,500 insolvencies, compared with 354,800 (the last peak) in 2009 and just 250,000 in 2007 (the last trough).
“These trends are a reminder that a minimum level of growth is necessary for insolvencies to fall and that there is an inevitable time lapse between an economic policy decision and its impact on the real economy. In this respect, the slowdown in the world economy, together with the timing and magnitude of various fiscal and monetary policy measures across the world, do not point to any improvement on the business insolvency front in the short term. The industrial fabric is in danger and it will take time to rebuild”, concludes Ludovic Subran.
For more information, please contact:
Euler Hermes Group Media Relations
Bettina Sattler – +33 (0)1 8411 6141
bettina.sattler@eulerhermes.com
Ogilvy Public Relations Worldwide
Lorenzo Ricci – +33 (0)1 5367 1283
lorenzo.ricci@ogilvy.com
As insolvências de empresas vão aumentar 50% em Portugal este ano, segundo um estudo da empresa especializada em seguros de crédito Euler Hermes, que afirma que no mundo estas vão crescer quatro por cento. Preparem-se para fome, miséria, aumento da criminalidade, ver Portugal transformando num bordel e por fim, guerra.
As previsões realizadas pela empresa precisam que o continente americano será a excepção, com as insolvências a caírem 9 por cento este ano. Já nos países mediterrâneos, submetidos ás milagrosas receitas dos "Assassinos Económicos" Goldman Sachs FMI (Documentário Assassino Económico e Carta de Greg Smith, Um Assassino Económico Arrependido), as insolvências deverão registar um recorde, ao aumentarem 20 por cento, sendo que em Portugal, irão disparar para 50%, com vista a acelerar e embaratecer o processo de privatizações, geridos pelo agente Bilderberg da Comissão Trilateral, o António Mendo de Castel Branco Borges Santander Goldman Sachs FMI, o homem de confiança de Soares dos Santos, um dos interessados nas privatizações....
Os países analisados por este estudo da Euler Hermes representam 86 por cento do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) do mundo, revela a empresa, para quem a desaceleração da economia mundial e as medidas orçamentais e monetárias tomadas não sugerem «nenhuma melhora» no curto prazo nas insolvências de empresas.
Segundo estes dados, a Europa é o principal responsável pela subida das insolvências. Portugal destaca-se com um aumento estimado de 50 por cento em 2012, acima do crescimento de 19 por cento registado o ano passado.
O valor estimado para a economia portuguesa está em linha com o divulgado recentemente de que, até junho, o número de empresas que iniciou processos de falência aumentou 46,7 por cento, segundo o barómetro empresarial da Informa/D&B.
No primeiro semestre, o número de falências atingiu 3.183 sociedades, a uma média superior a 500 por mês, concentradas sobretudo nos setores da construção, indústrias transformadoras e retalho.
Já na Grécia as insolvências devem crescer 30 por cento e em Espanha 20 por cento.
Holanda (mais 25 por cento) e o Brasil (mais 28 por cento) são outros dois países que vão impulsionar o aumento do número de insolvências, o que para a Euler Hermes demonstra que ainda não foi alcançado o crescimento económico mundial necessário para levar à queda das insolvências.
O Índice Global elaborado pela empresa, que resume a evolução de insolvências empresariais no mundo, acrescenta que «há um intervalo de tempo entre a decisão política económica e o seu impacto na economia real».
«O tecido industrial está em perigo e reconstituí-lo vai levar tempo», disse o economista-chefa da Euler Hermes, para quem a queda nas insolvências não vai abrandar, a menos que haja novos incentivos à economia e diminua a turbulência nos mercados financeiros.
"Aqueles capazes de abdicar da liberdade para obter um pouco de segurança temporária não merecem nem a segurança, nem a liberdade".
Autor: Benjamin Franklin
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Portugal Italia Espanha Greek Euler Hermes Macro Outlook Press Release August 2012 Slow-down in world growth pushes up number of business insolvencies Aumento Falências Download
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